Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
